I want to apply for an MPhil course at Cambridge and an MSt course at Oxford after my BA in Modern and Medieval Languages at Cambridge, and I'm wondering what my chances of getting the CHESS award or the Emmanuel College-bound Derek Brewer MPhil Studentship for Cambridge or the AHRC award for Oxford are.

To be specific: I assume that the factors that determine whether I get one of these or not are 1) my undergraduate grades to date; 2) the quality of my research proposal? (If there is something else, too, do let me know. Please note that for the awards I named, the application is automatic - you are considered as long as you apply for your course by the deadline - so there is no chance to impress anyone with "evidence of outstanding leadership skills," as is the case with the Cambridge Gates award... which I don't believe I could get because of my lack of such evidence.)

(I know that the fact it's a humanities subject also plays a role, but I obviously can't and won't switch to science.)

If this is correct, what are the proportions between the significance of these factors? I had 2.i's in my first two years of study, so I'm obviously aiming higher this year, but even if I get a 1 with distinction (yes, let us hypothetically assume I do), this surely will not be taken into account for the awards as the results are announced long before I SIT my 2014/15 exams in the first place? So, the question is: do I stand a realistic chance of getting an award just by crafting a brilliant research proposal? Or do the 2.i's undermine it completely?