Swine Flu - What do you think?
Given the intense media coverage, it's inevitable that you'll have heard about this swine fever that's supposed to be on the brink of becoming a pandemic. The WHO has raised its pandemic level to level 5, one below the maximum level of 6. The thing is, it's not supposed to be much worse than having a normal bout of flu (so I've read), it's not killed that many people at all so far (not when you consider how many people normal flu polishes off per year) and anti-viral drugs are available to treat it quite effectively.
Personally, I think the media has really over-hyped swine fever and the impact it's going to have, particularly that bastion of right-wing decency and solid family values, The Daily Mail (bit disappointed with the Guardian's scare-mongering coverage too). However, we're all highly intelligent and highly logical people, we members of this forum, so I'd be interested to hear what anyone else thinks about swine and what the think the impact will be. Are you really concerned, or are you a bit like me and think that much of it is a 'storm in a teacup'?
Well, I must admit I am a little concerned since the WHO raised the threat level, and my brother (usually immensely laid back about all things) phoned me saying he'd been given lots of serious advice from his company.
For a little light relief (concerning a 'Bird Flu Contingency Plan', but equally applicable now!):
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/columnists/rebecca-tyrrel/rebecca-tyrrel-days-like-those-468831.html
Personally I think the main danger would be that it could combine with an avian strain and come back next year in a much more lethal form. Its difficult to ascertain how serious the threat is this year as the numbers of infected are still quite low, but WHO must have good reasons for raising the threat level.
To be frank, I think people need to stop using animals as a food source. It is abundantly clear that intensive raising of poultry and pigs, and cattle etc is fraught with health and environmental issues. BSE, Avian flu, Swine flu - wake up people. The animals you eat are raised in appalling conditions, are fed utter crap including refined animal products, the manner in which they are raised damages the environment i.e intensive pig raising - and then you fork it into your mouth. I wish the media would focus upon the utter preventability and lack of neccessity for this in the first place.
Just my two cents.
It is abundantly clear that intensive raising of poultry and pigs, and cattle etc is fraught with health and environmental issues.
The same could be said of having large groups of people living together.....as in towns, cities....
And the flu has been around a lot longer than intensive farming has :)
I think it has been blown out of proportion by the media, as was the case with avian flu. The avian flu risk to humans did not come out of the intensive farming of poultry. The source of the H5N1 variant originated in 'backyard' poultry flocks in Asia where humans live in close proximity to their birds and constantly exposed to the birds which resulted in a bug able to infect humans and birds. Both the high and low pathogenic flu viruses for all species of animals are highly prevalent in nature and the just make a big impact when they get into an intensive unit as the animals live in such close proximity to each other. My research is in poultry and involves working with intensively reared birds. From my experience the farmers hate having to have so many animals in such crowded conditions; the reason they have to do this is because of the likes of Tesco. When tesco give you a buy on get one free chicken the farmer has to foot the bill; Mr Tesco comes along and says we are doing a BOGOF next week so we are going to take 100,000 birds but only pay you for 50,000. So the farmer is forced to increase his stocking density to make ends meet. Additionally there is consumer demand for cheap meat which again means the farmer has to have an increased stocking density to make enough money to cover the heating and feed costs which are ever increasing.
Saying that I do agree that the conditions of some farms I have been on have been terrible but the industry is working hard to improve animal health and welfare. Farming needs to change that goes without saying; however this change needs to be taken on board by the consumer and the supermarkets as well as the farmers. Diseases like BSE, Swine Fever, Foot and Mouth have been around long before intensive farming. We just have more animals around now and there is a lot more movement of animals therefore diseases spread a lot easier and are more apparent when they hit. Take the 2001 FMDV outbreak, if it wasn’t for the fact the government shut down lots of local abattoirs following the BSE crisis, the virus would not have been spread around the country so rapidly and widely before it was picked up.
From what I've been taught and the professor at my uni has told me, it's worrying only when it starts to combine with other variants, and the fact that it will be bad for those with vulnerable immune systems, the immunocompromised, elderly and young. Combined with the urban sprawl that cities are, it's potentially pretty dangerous and likely to spread very quickly...
So.... I can see why they're worried... But I reckon they could've contained it far better than they have so far. Nipped it in the bud, so to speak. I also think it'll resolve itself. I guess the problem lies in the way animals are farmed at the moment too... Having such intensively farmed animals put together in one area is just a hive of disease potential.
@Satchi: I... would really hate to think any person with any sort of intelligence would ignore the conspiracy theorist's ranting...especially since he can't even pronounce virologist.
I'm not that bothered really. I think they had to raise the level because it appears to be transmitted human to human. There was a good programme about this on Radio 4 yesterday about 4.30. They also said that as we in the north are at the end of our flu period whilst those in the south are entering theirs, they may have more to fear. I wonder how many of the people who are phoning NHS direct have actually had any contact with anyone who is remotely likely to have been anywhere near anyone who has flu of any kind, let alone this one.
From what I've been taught and the professor at my uni has told me, it's worrying only when it starts to combine with other variants, and the fact that it will be bad for those with vulnerable immune systems, the immunocompromised, elderly and young. Combined with the urban sprawl that cities are, it's potentially pretty dangerous and likely to spread very quickly...
As someone who is permanently immunosuppressed I am rather concerned, but to be honest no more so than about any other flu. I can't have the flu vaccine any more because of it retriggering my life-threatening disease one year, so any flu is a hazard for me. But I'm not viewing this as particularly more dangerous at the moment, but perhaps more spreadable.
What worries me about this pandemic is the lack of consistency by the British government. We are told don't take antivirals without symptoms, but the local health authorities are giving them to hundreds of school girls who are showing no symptoms after one case of swine flu in the school. Then we have people who have been in Mexico and are displaying flu symptoms, but their doctors cannot get their hands on swab kits nor antivirals in London, and NHS Direct told other people to go to A&E...
Then when this becomes a pandemic, 'Cobra' will allow Tamiflu to be distributed, which will require every flu sufferer to find a 'flu friend' to take a special secret code, to a special secure location, that prevents organised crime from stealing the Tamiflu and selling it on the black market (Gordon's been watching Spooks). Now call me cynical, but as this code is available via a helpline, won't half of Britain suddenly feign the flu to get their supply of Tamiflu??
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I was reading an article on birdflu. I just want to share the that with you.
http://www.caring.com/news/new-weapon-may-help-battle-bird-flu
hmm, not had it yet (turkey). Think part of the problem is rolling news. I don't think the snow was half the issue they made it out to be and where it was bad people do cope. I think because they need news to fill the 24 nature of it, then they push stories so they reach mass hysteria. Lets face it nothing exciting ever happens in the UK, its not like we are constantly under threat like the blitz or something, so people need to make their life feel more important by getting all stressed out about a flu strain/snow/stock exchange collapse etc etc.
